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The performance of Adaptive Bitrate (ABR) algorithms for video streaming depends on accurately predicting the download time of video chunks. Existing prediction approaches (i) assume chunk download times are dominated by network throughput; and (ii) apriori cluster sessions (e.g., based on ISP and CDN) and only learn from sessions in the same cluster. We make three contributions. First, through analysis of data from real-world video streaming sessions, we show (i) apriori clustering prevents learning from related clusters; and (ii) factors such as the Time to First Byte (TTFB) are key components of chunk download times but not easily incorporated into existing prediction approaches. Second, we propose Xatu, a new prediction approach that jointly learns a neural network sequence model with an interpretable automatic session clustering method. Xatu learns clustering rules across all sessions it deems relevant, and models sequences with multiple chunk-dependent features (e.g., TTFB) rather than just throughput. Third, evaluations using the above datasets and emulation experiments show that Xatu significantly improves prediction accuracies by 23.8% relative to CS2P (a state-of-the-art predictor). We show Xatu provides substantial performance benefits when integrated with multiple ABR algorithms including MPC (a well studied ABR algorithm), and FuguABR (a recent algorithm using stochastic control) relative to their default predictors (CS2P and a fully connected neural network respectively). Further, Xatu combined with MPC outperforms Pensieve, an ABR based on deep reinforcement learning. 

The HTTP adaptive streaming technique opened the door to cope with the fluctuating network conditions during the streaming process by dynamically adjusting the volume of the future chunks to be downloaded. The bitrate selection in this adjustment inevitably involves the task of predicting the future throughput of a video session, owing to which various heuristic solutions have been explored. The ultimate goal of the present work is to explore the theoretical upper bounds of the QoE that any ABR algorithm can possibly reach, therefore providing an essential step to benchmarking the performance evaluation of ABR algorithms. In our setting, the QoE is defined in terms of a linear combination of the average perceptual quality and the buffering ratio. The optimization problem is proven to be NP-hard when the perceptual quality is defined by chunk size and conditions are given under which the problem becomes polynomially solvable. Enriched by a global lower bound, a pseudo-polynomial time algorithm along the dynamic programming approach is presented. When the minimum buffering is given higher priority over higher perceptual quality, the problem is shown to be also NP-hard, and the above algorithm is simplified and enhanced by a sequence of lower bounds on the completion time of chunk downloading, which, according to our experiment, brings a 36.0% performance improvement in terms of computation time. To handle large amounts of data more efficiently, a polynomial-time algorithm is also introduced to approximate the optimal values when minimum buffering is prioritized. Besides its performance guarantee, this algorithm is shown to reach 99.938% close to the optimal results, while taking only 0.024% of the computation time compared to the exact algorithm in dynamic programming. 

The performance of Adaptive Bitrate (ABR) algorithms for video streaming depends on accurately predicting the download time of video chunks. Existing prediction approaches (i) assume chunk download times are dominated by network throughput; and (ii) apriori cluster sessions (e.g., based on ISP and CDN) and only learn from sessions in the same cluster. We make three contributions. First, through analysis of data from real-world video streaming sessions, we show (i) apriori clustering prevents learning from related clusters; and (ii) factors such as the Time to First Byte (TTFB) are key components of chunk download times but not easily incorporated into existing prediction approaches. Second, we propose Xatu, a new prediction approach that jointly learns a neural network sequence model with an interpretable automatic session clustering method. Xatu learns clustering rules across all sessions it deems relevant, and models sequences with multiple chunk-dependent features (e.g., TTFB) rather than just throughput. Third, evaluations using the above datasets and emulation experiments show that Xatu significantly improves prediction accuracies by 23.8% relative to CS2P (a state-of-the-art predictor). We show Xatu provides substantial performance benefits when integrated with multiple ABR algorithms including MPC (a well studied ABR algorithm), and FuguABR (a recent algorithm using stochastic control) relative to their default predictors (CS2P and a fully connected neural network respectively). Further, Xatu combined with MPC outperforms Pensieve, an ABR based on deep reinforcement learning.